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Thomas Paine

To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.

Friday, July 2, 2010

2 July - Economics,Wisdom and Science

How to really put the unemployed to work

Texas Workforce Commissioner Tom Pauken has the germ of a good idea here. Unfortunately, he’s incapable of seeing what it is, and so goes off a cliff with it.

Myths of Austerity

For the last few months, I and others have watched, with amazement and horror, the emergence of a consensus in policy circles in favor of immediate fiscal austerity. That is, somehow it has become conventional wisdom that now is the time to slash spending, despite the fact that the world’s major economies remain deeply depressed.

This conventional wisdom isn’t based on either evidence or careful analysis. Instead, it rests on what we might charitably call sheer speculation, and less charitably call figments of the policy elite’s imagination — specifically, on belief in what I’ve come to think of as the invisible bond vigilante and the confidence fairy.

The Hubris of Economics

There are many areas I would have liked to see the Economics Crisis article explore: The lack of Scientific Method, the mostly awful performance of economists, its misunderstanding of the value of modeling, the bias inherent in Wall Street variant of economics, and lastly, the corruption of economics by politics. I will just touch on some of these; you can fill in much of the blanks yourself.
The humility of science begins with an admission: We know nothing.  Research is a presumption that current theories are inadequate or incomplete.
Economics has a somewhat, shall we call it, less rigorous approach.  It begins with a few basic assumptions, many of which are obviously untrue; some are demonstrably false.
Mankind is not a rational, profit maximizing actor. No, markets are not perfectly, or even nearly, efficient. Starting from a false premise that fails to understand the most basic behaviors of the Human animal, economics proceeds to build an edifice of cards on a foundation of sand. (How could that possibly go astray?)
Economics forgot George E. P. Box’s most basic rule:
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful”
Box was a statistician who recognized the fundamental truth of all attempts to depict the universe mathematically: They are inherently flawed.

( Damn. Where was this guy when the claptrap about 'Deniers' started ? )



 The Obama administration and its pundit-defenders

Mohamed Hassan Odaini as 17 years old in 2001 when his father sent him from Yemen to study at a religious university in Raiwand, Pakistan, and when a campus house in which he was staying there was raided by Pakistani authorities in early 2002, he was turned over to the U.S. and shipped to Guantanamo, where he has remained without charges for the last eight years (he's now 26).  A federal court this month granted his habeas petition for release, finding that the evidence "overwhelmingly supports Odaini's contention that he is unlawfully detained."  Worse, the court described the multiple times over the years -- beginning in 2002 and occurring as recently as 2009 -- when the U.S. Government itself concluded that Odaini was guilty of nothing, was mistakenly detained, and should be released (see here for the court's description of that history). Despite that, the Obama administration has refused to release him for the past 16 months, and fought vehemently in this habeas proceeding to keep him imprisoned.  As the court put it, the Obama DOJ argued "vehemently" that there was evidence that Odaini was part of Al Qaeda.

( Interesting. Ex CIA agents say there IS no al Qaeda. )

The Obama administration is knowingly imprisoning a completely innocent human being who has been kept in a cage in an island prison, thousands of miles from his home, for the last 8 years, since he's 18 years old, despite having done absolutely nothing wrong.

How the Performance of the U.S. Health Care System Compares Internationally

The U.S. health care system ranks last or next-to-last on five dimensions of a high performance health system: quality, access, efficiency, equity, and healthy lives.

 

Factory Jobs Return, but Employers Find Skills Shortage

During the recession, domestic manufacturers appear to have accelerated the long-term move toward greater automation, laying off more of their lowest-skilled workers and replacing them with cheaper labor abroad.

Now they are looking to hire people who can operate sophisticated computerized machinery, follow complex blueprints and demonstrate higher math proficiency than was previously required of the typical assembly line worker.
Makers of innovative products like advanced medical devices and wind turbines are among those growing quickly and looking to hire, and they too need higher skills.
“That’s where you’re seeing the pain point,” said Baiju R. Shah, chief executive of BioEnterprise, a nonprofit group in Cleveland trying to turn the region into a center for medical innovation. “The people that are out of work just don’t match the types of jobs that are here, open and growing.”

Rapid evolution seen in Tibetans 

Tibetans may have undergone one of the fastest bouts of human evolution on record: Those having genes that allow them to thrive at high altitudes and low oxygen levels rose from 10% of the population to 90% in less than 3,000 years, a paper in the journal Science reports.
One genetic variant, the EPAS1 gene, allows Tibetans — many of whom live at 13,000 feet, where there is 40% less oxygen than at sea level — to thrive where others live with difficulty.

New Drug Restores Hearing After Noise-Induced Hearing Loss in Rats

Dispersants flow into Gulf in 'science experiment'

Chemical dispersants keep flowing into the Gulf of Mexico at virtually unchanged levels despite the Environmental Protection Agency's order to BP to "significantly" scale back, according to a CNN analysis of daily dispersant reports provided by the Deepwater Horizon Unified Command.

Archaeologists begin dig on stone circle ten times bigger than Stonehenge

Goce satellite views Earth's gravity in high definition

Breaking News

Frozen blood a source of stem cells, study finds
  • Gene pattern predicts who will live the longest

  • Fossil of mega-toothed killer whale found in Peru

  • Rogue cells explain Parkinson's transplant problem: study

  • more science news


  • In Other News ...


  • Total sees tougher rules as storm spreads Gulf slick

  • Payrolls fall, private hiring below forecasts

  • New commander to lead faltering Afghan war

  • Clinton tells Ukraine door to NATO open

  • Toyota plans recall which may cost $228 million: report

  • Fence-mending on agenda for Obama-Netanyahu talks

  • Fence-mending on agenda for Obama-Netanyahu talks

  • Australia strikes compromise tax deal with miners
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